Why Ukraine and Democracy Matter: The Fight Against Expansionism, Oligarchy, and Technological Influence
Introduction: A Crossroads for Democracy
As Donald Trump prepares to be inaugurated for his second term as President of the United States on January 20, 2025, the world watches closely. This moment marks more than a transition of power—it signals a critical juncture for democracy both domestically and globally. With Trump’s return to the presidency, questions about the resilience of democratic institutions, the rise of authoritarianism, and the manipulation of cultural and economic divides have taken center stage.
Trump’s presidency will likely have a profound influence on democracy worldwide. The United States has historically been a global symbol of democratic values and governance. However, his leadership style, marked by populist rhetoric and the erosion of traditional norms, will shape the discourse on governance, the rule of law, and the balance of power for years to come. Whether his administration exacerbates global democratic backsliding or sparks a renewed push for accountability and civic engagement remains to be seen.
Globally, his return has implications for geopolitical stability. In regions like Europe, where the European Union faces challenges from within and from external forces like Russia, the U.S.‘s role as a stabilizing force is critical. Under Trump’s leadership, the dynamics between authoritarian expansionism and democratic resilience could tilt significantly. As was evident during his first term, Trump’s foreign policy choices often emboldened adversarial regimes, creating ripple effects that challenged alliances and undermined democratic norms.
Trump’s second term thus stands to influence not only the trajectory of American democracy but also the broader global order. In this critical moment, reflecting on the lessons of the past—both in Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty and America’s internal struggles—can offer valuable insights into how democracies worldwide must adapt and persevere.
Ukraine: The Frontline in the Global Struggle for Democracy
The story of Ukraine is more than a tale of sovereignty and self-determination—it is a linchpin in the battle to preserve democracy and halt expansionist ambitions that threaten global stability. In 2014, Timothy Snyder’s essay, “Europe and Ukraine: Past and Future,” offered a compelling argument for why Ukraine’s fate was integral to the survival of Europe’s democratic ideals. A decade later, Snyder’s insights resonate more urgently, particularly when juxtaposed with his 2024 essay, “Class War or Culture War?” Together, they expose a shared thread: the fragility of democracy in the face of manipulation and division.
Ukraine stands as both a geographical and ideological barrier to Putin’s vision of a Eurasian empire. His strategy, as outlined by Snyder, is not only to expand territorially but to undermine the European Union—the cornerstone of European stability and democracy. Yet, as the events of the past decade have revealed, Putin’s ambitions extend far beyond Eastern Europe. By exploiting cultural and political fractures, he has successfully infiltrated and destabilized democracies, including the United States, highlighting the interconnectedness of global democratic resilience.
Ukraine: The Frontline Against Putin’s Expansionism
In 2014, Snyder emphasized Ukraine’s historical significance as a battleground for Europe’s democratic ideals. Putin’s annexation of Crimea and aggression in Eastern Ukraine were not merely regional conflicts; they were deliberate attacks on the European project. The European Union, with its unified market and shared values, represents a direct threat to Putin’s authoritarian model. To achieve his expansionist vision, Putin must erode the EU’s cohesion—a strategy evident in his backing of far-right populist movements across Europe.
Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression became a litmus test for the EU’s ability to defend its principles. If Ukraine were to fall completely under Moscow’s control, it would signify the collapse of Europe’s eastern frontier and embolden further incursions into democratic territories. Snyder’s analysis captures this dynamic: Ukraine is not just fighting for its own sovereignty but for the integrity of Europe as a whole.
America’s Role: A Weakening Pillar of Stability
In 2014, the fragility of American democracy was not as apparent as the threats facing Europe. The U.S. appeared to be a robust partner in countering Russian aggression. However, Putin’s investments in undermining American democracy were already underway, culminating in the 2016 election of Donald Trump. Trump’s presidency represented a seismic shift, providing Putin with an unprecedented opportunity to influence U.S. policy and sow discord.
As Snyder argues in his 2024 essay, Trump’s rise was not simply an American anomaly but a global phenomenon tied to the manipulation of culture and identity. By framing Trump as an anti-establishment hero, oligarchic forces (both domestic and foreign) exploited cultural divisions to mask their consolidation of power. This dynamic echoes Putin’s approach in Europe, where cultural grievances are weaponized to undermine democratic institutions.
The loss of American democratic stability has had profound implications for Europe. Without a strong U.S. committed to upholding democratic values, Europe faces increased pressure from authoritarian forces. Putin’s strategy is clear: weaken the transatlantic alliance, destabilize the EU, and expand Russia’s influence.
The Interconnected Fight for Democracy
The parallels between Snyder’s 2014 and 2024 essays underscore a sobering truth: the fight for Ukraine’s sovereignty and the fight against oligarchic dominance in the U.S. are part of the same broader struggle. Both hinge on the ability to resist the manipulation of culture and identity, which authoritarian regimes and oligarchs wield as tools to fracture societies.
• In Ukraine, Putin frames his aggression as a defense of Russian-speaking populations, masking his imperial ambitions under the guise of ethnic solidarity.
• In the U.S., Trump’s “identity politics for the wealthy” transforms cultural grievances into political weapons, distracting from systemic inequality and oligarchic rule.
In both cases, the erosion of democratic norms is the ultimate goal. The lesson is clear: democracy cannot survive without vigilance against the forces that seek to exploit division and suppress collective action.
A Call to Action
The events of the past decade reveal a crucial insight: the defense of democracy requires more than policy—it demands a cultural and ideological commitment to shared values. As Snyder concludes, addressing economic inequality or geopolitical aggression cannot be achieved without addressing the cultural narratives that enable them.
Ukraine’s resilience in the face of Russian aggression is a testament to the power of democratic ideals. However, the fight is far from over. As Snyder warned in 2014 and reiterated in 2024, the battle for Ukraine is not just about territory—it is about the survival of democracy itself. The interconnectedness of American and European stability highlights the need for a united front against authoritarian expansionism.
If Ukraine falls, Europe’s stability will falter. If America succumbs to cultural manipulation and oligarchic dominance, the global democratic order will face its greatest threat. The stakes have never been higher, and the time to act is now. The defense of democracy begins with recognizing its fragility—and our role in protecting it.
Historical Echoes and Present Parallels: A Warning from History
The political and cultural dynamics we are witnessing today bear unsettling similarities to historical periods marked by authoritarianism, scapegoating, and the erosion of civil liberties. While some frame these events within religious or eschatological narratives, such as the “seven years of tribulation” or the rise of the antichrist, the underlying forces at play are deeply rooted in historical precedent.
The alignment of religious forces with political power to suppress minorities and undermine freedoms is not new. As noted in the eschatology of groups like the Seventh-Day Adventists, there is a warning about the dangers of merging religion and state to enforce conformity and silence dissent. This dynamic played out infamously in Nazi Germany, where Jews and other marginalized groups became scapegoats for societal grievances, and governmental power was weaponized to suppress freedom of conscience and civil liberties.
Today, we see echoes of these patterns in the rising influence of religious nationalism and cultural conservatism in various parts of the world, including the United States. The growing push to legislate morality, redefine civil rights, and marginalize racial, religious, and sexual minorities raises significant concerns. History warns us that when governments begin to target minorities as scapegoats for societal challenges, the erosion of broader freedoms is not far behind.
These developments may seem to align with religious prophecies for some, but their real-world implications are clear: the potential loss of democratic principles and the rise of authoritarian governance. While the rhetoric and justifications may differ—religious fervor, economic instability, or cultural purity—the outcomes share striking parallels.
The lesson from history is urgent: without vigilance, unity, and collective resistance to such forces, societies risk descending into a cycle of repression and authoritarian control. This is not just a theoretical possibility but a trajectory with clear historical antecedents. The stakes for democracy and freedom of conscience could not be higher.
And What About AI?
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is already playing a major role in geopolitical and cultural dynamics, and its influence will only grow in the coming years. While this technology helped write this blog post, its impact goes far beyond creating text. AI is profoundly altering how societies function, how individuals think, and how governments make decisions.
AI as a Tool of Geopolitical Power
States and major tech corporations are leveraging AI to enhance their geopolitical influence. Whether in cyber defense, surveillance, or digital propaganda, AI amplifies governments’ ability to manipulate information and exert power. Russia, for instance, has used algorithms to influence Western elections and sow division, while China deploys AI to monitor and control its population on an unprecedented scale.
Democracies, on the other hand, face a dilemma: how to adopt AI to protect their citizens without infringing on fundamental freedoms? This question will be critical in the years ahead, as leadership in AI development may determine future global hegemonies.
AI and Changes in Mindsets
AI is also shaping how individuals think and make decisions. Algorithms influence our online experiences, often reinforcing biases by exposing us to content that aligns with our preexisting beliefs. This further polarizes societies and makes it more challenging to build democratic consensus.
However, AI could also play a positive role by broadening access to diverse information and supporting movements for greater transparency and fairness. Achieving this, however, requires rigorous regulation and a strong ethical framework in AI development and deployment.
Toward a New Paradigm?
AI has the potential to transform international relations as a weapon, a tool of diplomacy, or an economic driver. It could contribute to solving global challenges such as climate change, but it could just as easily exacerbate inequalities and heighten tensions between nations.
In this context, democracies must not only defend their values against authoritarian threats but also ensure that AI is used to strengthen human rights, promote international collaboration, and protect the most vulnerable.
AI is not merely a neutral tool; it reflects and amplifies the intentions of those who design and use it. As its role in geopolitical and cultural dynamics intensifies, the critical question becomes: will AI serve to divide or unite, to control or to empower? The answer will depend on the choices we make today regarding technological governance and ethics. In this rapidly changing world, it is more urgent than ever to ensure that AI becomes an ally of democracy, not its erosion.
